The state lost nearly 23,000 jobs over a 12-month period between 2008 and 2009. The West Virginia University Bureau of Business and Economic Research is predicting West Virginia could make up some of those losses before the end of the year, but the state will be stuck with a high unemployment rate until at least 2014.

"There is light at the end of the tunnel, but we definitely got a tunnel to get through," WVU economist George Hammond said.

Before the recession took hold, West Virginia was enjoying unemployment levels below its historic norms. The state's jobless rate hovered around 4 percent throughout most of 2008 while tax revenues came pouring into government coffers.

Things began to change shortly after the beginning of 2009. Century Aluminum announced early in the year that it was shutting down its smelter in Ravenswood, costing 650 employees their jobs. That was followed later in the year by closings at Precision Coil of Clarksburg and AGC Flat Glass Jerry Run Division in Harrison County.

Several coal mines also either closed down or laid off employees as coal prices dropped. Most recently, CONSOL Energy announced it might lay off up to 500 people at two mines in Clay County after a judge ruled against the company in a case involving water discharge permits.

Recent losses have been widely distributed over many industries, according to BBER. Manufacturing reported the largest job losses, with declines concentrated in the durable goods sector. Construction, mining and natural resources jobs also showed losses, as did the service sector, particularly retail. Professional and business services, leisure and hospitality and financial activities also reported large declines.

Not surprising, the national recession drove the job losses.

However, West Virginia has fared a little better than the rest of the nation so far. Many nearby states have reported unemployment rates at or above 10 percent. State government also is weathering the storm with a relatively small budget deficit. States such as Pennsylvania and, particularly, California are in such dire financial shape they are looking at laying off state workers and shutting down government programs.

Hammond expects things to get worse in the state before they get better. Unemployment will probably peak at 9.5 percent during the second half of 2010 and then slowly drop to 7.5 percent by 2014. Most job gains will be in service industries, particularly in health care and business and financial services. Significant gains may be made in trade, transportation, utilities, government, leisure and hospitality.

"I think we will start to stabilize in the first half of 2010, and start to grow slowly in the second half," Hammond said.

Hanging over any economic recovery in West Virginia is what federal lawmakers plan to do about coal.

Last year, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency postponed 79 mining permits for further review in a move that angered coal company executives and many of the state's elected leaders. Protests of mountaintop mining operations also intensified.

During the summer, the U.S. House of Representatives passed cap-and-trade legislation. A similar bill is before the Senate.

Experts say any crackdown on mountaintop mining or power plant emissions has the potential to cut back on coal production in West Virginia and possibly put people out of work.

"We don't know what government policy towards coal is going to be, but it appears it is going to be negative," Marshall University economist Cal Kent said.